In the uncertainty and volatility of combat, decisions and actions must be made quickly and accurately or people die. The OODA loop – Observe, Orient, Decide, Act – is a strategy developed by U.S. Air Force Colonel John Boyd to help fighter pilots during dogfights. It is a learning system, a method for dealing with uncertainty, and a strategy for winning head-to-head contests and competitions. Uncertainty is part of the world we live in. But, it is not uncertainty that is the problem. It is our inability to shift perspectives when change happens to see the world as it is, instead of how it we think it “should” be.
Observe – Build a broad, comprehensive picture. This is pure, unadulterated information gathering with as little judgement or filtering as possible. Inputs should also include observations about yourself as well as past trends in your decision making in similar situations. Note that comprehensive does not mean “take a ton of time to agonize over researching something until you know everything.” No paralysis by analysis. Don’t let perfect be the enemy of good.
Orient – If you do not have a good sense of the reality around a situation, your decision is not a fully rational one… you’re just shooting from the hip. Call out your biases and what is not fact and remove them from your decision. Separate out information that is True But Useless (T.B.U.) – not all data is relevant. And, uncertainty is irrelevant. We must accept uncertainty as part of life and make decisions even in the face of it.
Decide – Steps one and two should present a few different solutions. Pick one. One thing to guard against is first-conclusion bias. Sometimes, the first thing you want to do is not the best, especially if that is what you always go for.
Act – Once the decision is made it is time to act on it. So go for it! During this stage it is important to be watching how good our decision was in order to learn for the future. Did we observe the right info? Did we get swayed by biases or other barriers? Were our models correct? Then repeat the whole loop again.
For a more detailed analysis of the OODA loop, read this article by Brett & Kate McKay.
“What is strategy? A mental tapestry of changing intentions for harmonizing and focusing our efforts as a basis for realizing some aim or purpose in an unfolding and often unforeseen world of many bewildering events and many contending interests.” – John Boyd
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